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Here’s What the Next Gold Bull Market Will Look Like

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.

We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)

Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.

And our current bear market is longer than that one.

To get a sense for the potential upside, we applied the percentage gain from each of those upcycles to our recommended BIG GOLD picks.

We can’t show you our entire portfolio out of fairness to paying subscribers. But look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).

Gold ETF Current
Share
Price
1976–
1980
1982–
1983
1986–
1987
1989–
1990
1993–
1994
2000–
2003
2005–
2008
2008–
2011
554.2% 205.1% 141.8% 51.5% 99.9% 601.5% 206.4% 272.5%
GDX $19.49 $127.51 $59.45 $47.14 $29.53 $38.96 $136.72 $59.72 $72.60

Keep two things in mind about this table:

  1. The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.
  2. It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.

Here’s what the price for popular royalty company Royal Gold would look like if it matched past bull markets.

Royalty
Company
Current
Share
Price
1976–
1980
1982–
1983
1986–
1987
1989–
1990
1993–
1994
2000–
2003
2005–
2008
2008–
2011
554.2% 205.1% 141.8% 51.5% 99.9% 601.5% 206.4% 272.5%
Royal
Gold
$64.23 $420.21 $195.93 $155.34 $97.30 $128.38 $450.56 $196.79 $239.26

You might think royalty stocks won’t show similar gains going forward. It’s true they’ve already performed well. However, it’s more likely they’ll be wildly popular than anything else. That’s partly because there are only a few of them in this industry.

Now take a look at the prices our top silver pick would hit.

Silver
Producer
Current
Share
Price
1976–
1980
1982–
1983
1986–
1987
1989–
1990
1993–
1994
2000–
2003
2005–
2008
2008–
2011
554.2% 205.1% 141.8% 51.5% 99.9% 601.5% 206.4% 272.5%
Top
BIG GOLD
Silver Pick
$3.71 $24.27 $11.32 $8.97 $5.62 $7.42 $26.02 $11.37 $13.82

If silver rises along with gold in the next bull market—something we think is extremely likely—this small niche market will absolutely soar.

No other sector is as depressed as the mining sector. A return to anything close to some of the stronger past bull markets will hand us tremendous gains.

The June issue of BIG GOLD [1] focuses on the top silver pick listed in the table. I’m convinced it will at least triple from current levels in the next precious metals bull market.

We have two very specific reasons why it will do so. And these two factors are unmatched by almost any other mid-tier or major producer.

Get our analysis along with the name of this stock in the just-released BIG GOLD [2].

We also include a special offer on bullion that has numismatic potential. These coins sell at bullion prices, yet will likely return much greater profit than standard bullion. And they come at discounted prices you won’t find elsewhere.

It’s “The Two Best Silver Plays to Buy Today”—a highly actionable issue that tells you exactly what to buy and why. Get it now. [3]

http://www.caseyresearch.com/go/uqtgh-2/WIM [4]

© 1998-2013 by Casey Research, LLC.

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